Manifold MarketsSin KYCPronóstico comunitario actualMojtaba Khamenei 65.7%Líder entre 24 opciones
Pronosticadores
212
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado15 mar 26, 2:5231 dic 26, 23:59
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
Mojtaba Khamenei66%
También disponible en Polymarket
Iran leader end of 2026?
2.4%6m
-2.4%68%
6%
+0.1%4%
+120 resultados más
100 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total12,5 M €
Volumen 24h19,4 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.