PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualMojtaba Khamenei 68%-2.4%Líder entre 123 opciones
Calidad del mercado
100 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
19,4 mil €
Liquidez
1,3 M €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
68.3% / 68.4%
Spread
0.1%
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
-2.2%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
1 mar 26, 0:2831 dic 26, 0:00
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
Mojtaba Khamenei68%
También disponible en Manifold Markets
Leader of Iran at end of 2026?
6m
65.7%
2.6%
0.2%
+21 resultados más
Pronóstico comunitario212 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice
Volumen total43,2 mil €
Volumen 24h142,4 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSReglas
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
- Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
- If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
- Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
- Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.