Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
>2028 87%Líder entre 23 opciones
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 24, 15:59 UTC31 dic 28, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
Manifold MarketsWill the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia?
Manifold MarketsWill the 🇺🇸 2028 Presidential Election take place as scheduled?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiReglas
This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.
- Resolution criteria:
- Qualifies as aggressive use:
- Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation
- Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators
- Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets cotiza >2028 al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Está previsto que When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.