Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2027 41.4%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+7.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 33 minutos
22 jun 26, 10:41 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region.
- If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."
- For the purposes of this market:
- The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
- Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts.