Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2027 34.2%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+9.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado22 jun 26, 10:41 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region.
- If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."
- For the purposes of this market:
- The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
- Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2027 al 34% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- Está previsto que When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region. se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria