Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 8:38 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNorth Korea 34.4%Líder entre 16 opciones
Pronosticadores
44
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado4 oct 22, 2:52 UTC1 ene 70, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsIf North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves once any nuclear weapon is detonated.
- (Including tests and civilian uses.)
- The blast must be independently confirmed by multiple sources and not subject to significant uncertainty as to whether it took place.
- For reference, the most recent nuclear test was in 2017 by the named outcome.
- the named outcome is the only country confirmed to have detonated a nuclear device since 1998, though there are suspicions of more recent secret tests by China and Russia.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests