Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualUnyielding Islamic Regime 34.6%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado12 mar 26, 3:08 UTC30 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the outcome that best describes Iran's political situation by end of 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by assessing the primary governing structure and power dynamics in Iran as of December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting from international news sources, government statements, and expert analysis.
- the named outcome: The clerical system remains in control with minimal structural change to governance or ideology, effectively no concessions to the coalition or protestors.
- Pre war status quo or even more radicalism.
- Deal with minor concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving small compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or inferior to the Obama Deal.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Unyielding Islamic Regime al 35% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Está previsto que Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria