If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina14a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual>8x FLOP/s per dollar 29%Líder entre 6 opciones
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado7 nov 23, 21:06 UTC15 nov 40, 7:59 UTC
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IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 10 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.
- I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f
- https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance
