Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.4%+0.1ptLíder entre 4 opciones
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42
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado3 sept 23, 6:05 UTC1 ene 30, 22:59 UTC
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Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals: