Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 73.9%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado20 mar 26, 23:07 UTC1 ene 31, 0:04 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.
- Both a nuclear first strike and a response to Israeli nuclear weapons use count as yes.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel??
- Está previsto que Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.