Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
0.1 pts (24h)Política de EE. UU.PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaOriente MedioRusia / UcraniaEuropa2m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 9:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Punto medio del libro seleccionado
No · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Referencia guardada
No 96%
No 96%Calidad del mercado
48 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
22,9 mil €
Alta liquidezInterés abierto
3,5 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado13 nov 25, 23:12 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 0,1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- No
Principales tenedores
Cargando principales tenedores
Profundidad de mercado · No
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution.
- Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.
- Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
