Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 64.7%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado10 mar 25, 13:25 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to YES, If any nuclear weapon is used before or in 2030.
- This includes weapons not used in war.
- Such as in a test.
- This includes smaller yield weapons, that are not necessarily as bombastic as an intercontinental ballistic missiles, (what's important is the payload)
- This DOES NOT include nuclear powered weapons, such as air-craft carriers or submarines (as they don't even fall under my definition of a weapon, and are considered weapon platforms)
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030?
- Está previsto que Will a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to YES, If any nuclear weapon is used before or in 2030.