Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.3%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado13 ene 26, 13:35 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Civil War in Iran in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Civil War in Iran in 2026??
- Está previsto que Civil War in Iran in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Civil War in Iran in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria