Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 91.3%
Pronosticadores
58
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado21 oct 24, 21:08 UTC2 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Está previsto que Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following: