At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
GeopolíticaOne-OffSociedad y culturaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 86.9%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado13 dic 22, 10:59 UTC31 dic 23, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
- Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
