LimitlessComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaAviso de calidad de datosSin precio significativo
Datos del 24 oct 2026, 23:37 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
August 31 50%Líder entre 4 opciones
August 31 50%Calidad del mercado
22 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconocidaDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
25 ago 26, 13:29 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.