FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosAviso de calidad de datosSin cotizaciones en vivo
Datos del 27 oct 2026, 2:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidad implícita actual
December 31 18%
December 31 18%Calidad del mercado
23 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
496,8 €
Baja liquidezTraders
2
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This event predicts whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed to shipping by the dates covered by the event's markets.
- A market will resolve to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as published by IMF PortWatch, is equal to or less than 10 at any point on or before the market's deadline.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.
- A market resolves 'Yes' immediately and irrevocably once qualifying data is published, even if traffic later recovers.
- Data revisions published before the market's deadline are considered; revisions published after it are disregarded.
- If no qualifying data has been published within 14 calendar days after the deadline, resolution will use the data available through that point.