Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffTrade PolicyGeopolítica3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.7%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado20 ago 26, 2:12 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
