Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffPolítica comercialGeopolítica2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 57.1%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado20 ago 26, 2:12 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketOn October 25th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.