Prediction Markets Today
A daily briefing on what moved, what opened, what is expiring, and what just resolved across prediction markets.
Last updated: Oct 26, 4:30 AM UTC
Biggest Moves Today
10
Newly Opened
10
Expiring Soon
10
Just Resolved
10
POLYMARKETBank of Brazil decision in November?
POLYMARKETBank of Brazil decision in November?
Moved Outcome
25 bps decrease
Probability Shift
80% → 23%
24h Volume
$8.2K
61 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIPJM AEP-Dayton Hub average real-time power price (Week 44)
KALSHIPJM AEP-Dayton Hub average real-time power price (Week 44)
Moved Outcome
Above $150/MWh
Probability Shift
49% → 3%
24h Volume
$6K
64 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
Moved Outcome
↑ $130
Probability Shift
50.5% → 5%
24h Volume
$15.1K
74 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHICentral Bank of Brazil rate decision in November
KALSHICentral Bank of Brazil rate decision in November
Moved Outcome
Maintain current rate
Probability Shift
17% → 60%
24h Volume
$7.5K
69 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKET#2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 30)
POLYMARKET#2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 30)
Moved Outcome
Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA
Probability Shift
56% → 92%
24h Volume
$9K
77 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?
POLYMARKETDonald Trump # Truth Social posts October 23 - October 30, 2026?
Moved Outcome
200+
Probability Shift
46.5% → 11%
24h Volume
$10.6K
54 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETNext Serbia Presidential Election Winner
POLYMARKETNext Serbia Presidential Election Winner
Moved Outcome
Miloš Vučević
Probability Shift
42.3% → 7%
24h Volume
$15.5K
70 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETAS Trenčín vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava - More Markets
POLYMARKETAS Trenčín vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava - More Markets
Moved Outcome
AS Trenčín vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: O/U 5.5 — Over
Probability Shift
48% → 14%
24h Volume
$17K
70 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETFC Košice vs. FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda - More Markets
POLYMARKETFC Košice vs. FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda - More Markets
Moved Outcome
FC Košice vs. FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda: O/U 5.5 — Over
Probability Shift
47.5% → 14%
24h Volume
$14.6K
62 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETWill Claude go down on __ days in October?
POLYMARKETWill Claude go down on __ days in October?
Moved Outcome
<5
Probability Shift
32.2% → 1%
24h Volume
$6K
76 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIGold Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes61%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIETH Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes80%
49 • Low qualityData as of
ETHKALSHISOL Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes83%
49 • Low qualityData as of
SOLKALSHIXRP Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes76%
49 • Low qualityData as of
XRPKALSHIWTI Oil Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes51%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIDOGE Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes78%
49 • Low qualityData as of
DOGEKALSHISilver Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes65%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHICopper Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes72%
45 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIEUR/USD Up or Down – 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes52%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIZEC Up or Down - 15 minutes
Opened
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
24h Volume
$0
Yes66%
49 • Low qualityData as of
ZECKALSHIHighest temperature in Atlanta on Oct 25, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$37K
69° to 70°99%
79 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 25, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$136.5K
81° to 82°99%
60 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 25, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$133.3K
64° to 65°99%
60 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIHighest temperature in Boston on Oct 25, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$26.4K
62° to 63°99%
77 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIHighest temperature in Philadelphia on Oct 25, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$30.3K
65° to 66°99%
53 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHITexas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 25, 2026
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$46.7K
Above 56,000 MW99%
48 • Low qualityData as of
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Chicago (CHI)(MDW)(KMDW) exceed 73 F on October 25, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.4K
No98%
40 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIBTC Up or Down - 15 minutes
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$0
Yes78%
49 • Low qualityData as of
BTCKALSHIGold Up or Down - 15 minutes
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$0
Yes61%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIETH Up or Down - 15 minutes
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$0
Yes80%
49 • Low qualityData as of
ETHKALSHIGold 15 min · $4,007.86 target
Winning Outcome
Yes (81%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:15 AM
Total Vol
$69K
80 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIWTI Oil 15 min · $100.96 target
Winning Outcome
Yes (39%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:15 AM
Total Vol
$31.8K
75 • High qualityData as of
KALSHITijuana vs Santos Laguna: First Half BTTS
Winning Outcome
No (64%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:17 AM
Total Vol
$21.2K
69 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHISilver 15 min · $54.110 target
Winning Outcome
Yes (61%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:15 AM
Total Vol
$9.6K
70 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIClub Tijuana de Caliente vs Club Santos Laguna: 1st Half Correct Score
Winning Outcome
Club Tijuana de Caliente wins 1H 2-0 (42%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:15 AM
Total Vol
$8.6K
36 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHICrypto Leader - 15 minutes
Winning Outcome
XRP (35%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:15 AM
Total Vol
$7.5K
46 • Low qualityData as of
XRPETH
GEMINIBTC price today at 12am EDT
Recorded final outcome
$79,300 or above (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 26, 4:30 AM
Total Vol
$3.7K
32 • Low qualityData as of
BTC
LIMITLESSBTC Up or Down - 15 Min
Winning Outcome
Yes (64.3%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:17 AM
Total Vol
$5.2
30 • Low qualityData as of
BTC
POLYMARKETWhat price will ETH/BTC hit October 19-25?
Winning Outcome
↓ 0.0290
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:18 AM
Total Vol
$0
23 • Low qualityData as of
ETHBTCLIMITLESSETH Up or Down - 15 Min
Winning Outcome
Yes (63.7%)
Resolved
Oct 26, 4:17 AM
Total Vol
$0
30 • Low qualityData as of
ETHKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
24h Volume
$6M
Total Vol
$203.5M
San Francisco15%
89 • High qualityData as of
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
24h Volume
$5.6M
Fed maintains rate94%
89 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
24h Volume
$4.7M
Total Vol
$68.6M
Harry Kane70%
89 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
24h Volume
$4.2M
Total Vol
$66.8M
No change95%
89 • High qualityData as of
KALSHITijuana vs Santos Laguna
24h Volume
$3.1M
Total Vol
$3.3M
Tijuana89%
98 • High qualityData as of
Largest recent trades
Largest observed fills in the recent feed, limited to the last 24 hours. This is not a complete daily ranking.
Where sources disagree
Source probabilities differ across markets. Check the source pages before trading.
Labels reflect the resolution data we've verified for each source — not the market's reliability.
Largest current gaps
NHL Eastern Conference Finals Winner7 pp gap
New York Islanders:Polymarket8%vsKalshi1%View comparison
Polymarket8%Kalshi1%Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?7 pp gap
Anthropic:Polymarket4%vsKalshi11%View comparison
Polymarket4%Kalshi11%Midterms: which party wins young men?6 pp gap
Republicans:Polymarket14%vsKalshi20%View comparison
Polymarket14%Kalshi20%How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?5 pp gap
0:Polymarket27%vsKalshi22%View comparison
Polymarket27%Kalshi22%Probabilities can be stale or settle differently across sources.
Forecast accuracy
How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
KalshiWell calibrated1.3 pp2,078 markets
PolymarketWell calibrated2.4 pp1,358 markets
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated3.9 pp208 markets
GeminiRoughly calibrated8.4 pp56 markets
LimitlessRoughly calibrated10.3 pp121 markets