Prediction Markets Today
A daily briefing on what moved, what opened, what is expiring, and what just resolved across prediction markets.
Last updated: Sep 4, 1:36 AM
12 of 12 venues liveSource health
Biggest Moves Today
10
Newly Opened
10
Expiring Soon
10
Just Resolved
10
KALSHIBethune-Cookman vs UCF: Spread
KALSHIBethune-Cookman vs UCF: Spread
Moved Outcome
UCF wins by over 57.5 points
Probability Shift
13% → 93%
24h Volume
$349.1K
74 • Medium quality0pt disagreementUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Moved Outcome
$78,500 or above
Probability Shift
21% → 91%
24h Volume
$1.3M
74 • Medium qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
BTCKALSHIOnslaught · Rotten Tomatoes score
KALSHIOnslaught · Rotten Tomatoes score
Moved Outcome
Above 60
Probability Shift
96% → 22%
24h Volume
$161K
74 • Medium quality0pt disagreementUpdated 7 minutes ago
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 4?
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 4?
Moved Outcome
80,000
Probability Shift
7.5% → 71%
24h Volume
$948K
74 • Medium qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
BTC
POLYMARKETLoL: Maryville University vs Contingent Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs
POLYMARKETLoL: Maryville University vs Contingent Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs
Moved Outcome
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
Probability Shift
27.5% → 90%
24h Volume
$410.6K
74 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIWhich states will redistrict before the midterms?
KALSHIWhich states will redistrict before the midterms?
Moved Outcome
Missouri
Probability Shift
88.9% → 9%
24h Volume
$50K
56 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIHow low will BNB get in September?
KALSHIHow low will BNB get in September?
Moved Outcome
Below $580.00
Probability Shift
6% → 94%
24h Volume
$1M
47 • Low qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
BNBKALSHIMO-05 House winner?
KALSHIMO-05 House winner?
Moved Outcome
Republican party
Probability Shift
86% → 11%
24h Volume
$34.9K
76 • High qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHITampa Bay vs Texas
KALSHITampa Bay vs Texas
Moved Outcome
Texas
Probability Shift
47% → 93%
24h Volume
$1.2M
96 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
KALSHIBethune-Cookman vs UCF: Total Points
KALSHIBethune-Cookman vs UCF: Total Points
Moved Outcome
Over 63.5 points scored
Probability Shift
32% → 91%
24h Volume
$302.2K
74 • Medium quality0pt disagreementUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $80,841.64 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$209.7K
No53%
90 • High qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
BTCKALSHIGold 15 min · $4,470.85 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$14.7K
No60%
78 • High qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIETH 15 min · $2,504.67 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$5.6K
No58%
73 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
ETHKALSHIXRP 15 min · $1.4394 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$2K
No74%
70 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
XRPKALSHISilver 15 min · $66.659 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$1.9K
No59%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIWTI Oil 15 min · $91.67 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$1.5K
Yes74%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHISOL 15 min · $103.5090 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$781.5
No73%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
SOLKALSHIHYPE 15 min · $86.9289 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$503.3
No76%
68 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIZEC 15 min · $940.0126 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$357.5
No75%
59 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
ZECKALSHICopper 15 min · $6.69097 target
Opened
Sep 4, 1:30 AM
24h Volume
$502.5
No72%
54 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $80,841.64 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$209.7K
No53%
90 • High qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
BTCKALSHIBTC price on Sep 3, 2026 at 10pm EDT?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$790.4K
$80,200 or above99%
74 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
BTCKALSHIGold 15 min · $4,470.85 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$14.7K
No60%
78 • High qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIETH price on Sep 3, 2026 at 10pm EDT?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$18.1K
$2,480 or above99%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
ETHKALSHIETH 15 min · $2,504.67 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$5.6K
No58%
73 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
ETHPOLYMARKETBitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$14.4K
Down76%
70 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
BTC
POLYMARKETAthletics vs. Seattle Mariners - Player Props
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$2.9K
Kade Anderson: Strikeouts O/U 5.555%
53 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIXRP 15 min · $1.4394 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$2K
No74%
70 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
XRPKALSHISilver 15 min · $66.659 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.9K
No59%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIWTI Oil 15 min · $91.67 target
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.5K
Yes74%
69 • Medium qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
FORECASTEXWill the lowest price of XRP fall below $1 in 2026?
Winning Outcome
Yes (95%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$200
32 • Low qualityStale · Updated 23 days ago
XRPFORECASTEXWill Reddit Inc (RDDT) be added to the S&P 500 by the end of 2026?
Winning Outcome
Yes (89%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$150
18 • Low qualityStale · Updated 20 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Lindsey Graham win the South Carolina general election for US Senate in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (94%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$70
18 • Low qualityStale · Updated 52 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Ryan Fazio win the Connecticut Republican primary election for Governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
Yes (98%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
17 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Erin Stewart win the Connecticut Republican primary election for Governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (97%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
16 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Marsha Blackburn win the Tennessee Republican primary for governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
Yes (98%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
16 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Betsy McCaughey win the Connecticut Republican primary election for Governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (98%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
15 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill John Rose win the Tennessee Republican primary for governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (98%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
15 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Tim Burchett win the Tennessee Republican primary for governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (96%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
15 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
FORECASTEXWill Mark Green win the Tennessee Republican primary for governor in 2026?
Winning Outcome
No (97%)
Resolved
—
24h Volume
$0
15 • Low qualityStale · Updated 13 days ago
KALSHIColorado vs Georgia Tech
24h Volume
$6.6M
Total Vol
$7.5M
Georgia Tech74%
98 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
24h Volume
$6M
Total Vol
$86.1M
No change56%
89 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
24h Volume
$2.7M
Total Vol
$33.1M
Fed maintains rate55%
89 • High quality0pt disagreementUpdated 1 minute ago
KALSHISt. Kitts and Nevis Patriots vs St. Lucia Kings
24h Volume
$2.9M
Total Vol
$3.2M
St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots98%
98 • High quality0pt disagreementUpdated 1 minute ago
KALSHIBergs vs De Jong
24h Volume
$3.8M
Total Vol
$4.2M
Zizou Bergs84%
95 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
Largest trades today
Where sources disagree
Source probabilities differ across markets. Check the source pages before trading.
Labels reflect the resolution data we've verified for each source — not the market's reliability.
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?47 pp gap
Eli Lilly:Polymarket10%vsKalshi57%View comparison
Polymarket10%Kalshi57%Will jL appear as an analyst at an S-Tier CS tournament in 2026?30 pp gap
No:
Limitless61%vsPolymarket91%View comparison
Limitless61%Polymarket91%What will Trump say in September?28 pp gap
Zohran / Mamdani:Polymarket51%vsKalshi79%View comparison
Polymarket51%Kalshi79%Sporting Jax vs Lexington SC27 pp gap
Sporting Jax:Kalshi0%vsPolymarket27%View comparison
Kalshi0%Polymarket27%Big Brother Season 28 · 2nd place25 pp gap
Taylor Brown:Kalshi6%vsPolymarket31%View comparison
Kalshi6%Polymarket31%Probabilities can be stale or settle differently across sources.
Forecast accuracy
How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated3.0%296 markets
PolymarketFairly calibrated4.1%385 markets
KalshiFairly calibrated5.2%1,235 markets