Prediction Markets Today
A daily briefing on what moved, what opened, what is expiring, and what just resolved across prediction markets.
Last updated: Jul 12, 7:09 PM
11 of 11 venues liveSource health
Biggest Moves Today
10
Newly Opened
10
Expiring Soon
10
Just Resolved
10
POLYMARKETWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
POLYMARKETWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
Moved Outcome
Zverev Set 1 Winner
Probability Shift
70.5% → 0%
24h Volume
$12.6M
100 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 20 Finishers
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 20 Finishers
Moved Outcome
Karl Vilips
Probability Shift
84% → 1%
24h Volume
$182.3K
100 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
POLYMARKETIran military action against a gulf state on...?
POLYMARKETIran military action against a gulf state on...?
Moved Outcome
July 12
Probability Shift
8.5% → 91%
24h Volume
$152.2K
100 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 10 Finishers
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 10 Finishers
Moved Outcome
Chris Gotterup
Probability Shift
83% → 1%
24h Volume
$113.8K
100 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
KALSHIJannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Exact Match Score
KALSHIJannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Exact Match Score
Moved Outcome
Jannik Sinner wins 3-1
Probability Shift
31% → 99%
24h Volume
$2.1M
100 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 5 Finishers
KALSHIGenesis Scottish Open: Top 5 Finishers
Moved Outcome
Keita Nakajima
Probability Shift
11% → 99%
24h Volume
$154.4K
77 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
KALSHILDU Quito vs Libertad Loja
KALSHILDU Quito vs Libertad Loja
Moved Outcome
Tie
Probability Shift
18% → 99%
24h Volume
$576.6K
77 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
POLYMARKETWorld Cup: Player to score
POLYMARKETWorld Cup: Player to score
Moved Outcome
Julio Enciso
Probability Shift
14.1% → 100%
24h Volume
$21.4K
100 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
KALSHITour de France: Stage 9 Winner
KALSHITour de France: Stage 9 Winner
Moved Outcome
Tadej Pogacar
Probability Shift
95% → 1%
24h Volume
$12.4K
88 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
KALSHILowest temperature in Denver on Jul 12, 2026?
KALSHILowest temperature in Denver on Jul 12, 2026?
Moved Outcome
60° to 61°
Probability Shift
7% → 99%
24h Volume
$28.8K
77 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat tier will the next public Claude model be?
Opened
Jul 12, 6:10 PM
24h Volume
$1.3K
Fable/Mythos13.4%
Updated 7 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Fable usage on subscription be extended again past July 19?
Opened
Jul 12, 5:30 PM
24h Volume
$536
Yes68%
Updated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIBTC price on Jul 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Opened
Jul 12, 7:00 PM
24h Volume
$0
$54,600 or above0%
49 • Low qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
BTCKALSHIETH price on Jul 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Opened
Jul 12, 7:00 PM
24h Volume
$0
$1,060 or above0%
49 • Low qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
ETH
FUTUURNational League vs. American League
Opened
Jul 15, 12:00 AM
24h Volume
$200
Yes56%
32 • Low qualityUpdated 7 minutes ago
KALSHIAustin temperature on Jul 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Opened
Jul 12, 7:00 PM
24h Volume
$0
87° or above0%
24 • Low qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
Opened
Jan 5, 5:15 AM
24h Volume
$500
Yes9.6%
Updated 7 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?
Opened
Apr 2, 6:08 PM
24h Volume
$250
Yes11.7%
Updated 7 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
Opened
Dec 25, 1:11 PM
24h Volume
$150
Yes13.8%
Updated 7 minutes ago
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?
Opened
Jul 3, 5:18 PM
24h Volume
$100
Yes4.4%
Updated 7 minutes ago
POLYMARKETValorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.6M
Match Winner100%
100 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: SPARTA vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$12.8K
Match Winner100%
100 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$167K
1 Winner100%
77 • High qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
POLYMARKETNBA Summer League: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$2.5K
Detroit Pistons47%
91 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
POLYMARKETSeattle Reign FC vs. Portland Thorns FC - More Markets
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.9K
O/U 0.595%
80 • High qualityUpdated 12 minutes ago
POLYMARKETBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$6.2K
Up37%
77 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
BTC
POLYMARKETToronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres - Player Props
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.7K
Germán Márquez: Strikeouts O/U 1.564%
64 • Medium qualityUpdated 1 minute ago
POLYMARKETColorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants - Player Props
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.3K
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 1.566%
64 • Medium qualityUpdated 12 minutes ago
POLYMARKETEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.5K
Up57%
68 • Medium qualityUpdated 12 minutes ago
ETHKALSHIBTC price on Jul 12, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$0
$54,600 or above0%
49 • Low qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
BTCKALSHIGenesis Scottish Open Winner
Winning Outcome
Tom Kim (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$82.3M
77 • High qualityUpdated 28 minutes ago
POLYMARKETIasi Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu
Winning Outcome
Burcescu (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$183.4K
100 • High qualityUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETDota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D
Winning Outcome
Team Yandex (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$67.4K
100 • High qualityUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETT20 Blast: Sussex vs Hampshire
Winning Outcome
Hampshire - Completed match (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$65K
77 • High quality100pt disagreementUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETITF Laval: Keegan Rice vs Kenta Miyoshi
Winning Outcome
Completed Match (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$45.2K
77 • High qualityUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETT20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Glamorgan
Winning Outcome
Glamorgan - Completed match (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$44.9K
77 • High qualityUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Lucknow on July 12?
Winning Outcome
35°C (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$30.5K
77 • High qualityUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETT20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Warwickshire
Winning Outcome
Warwickshire - Who wins the toss (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$18.9K
77 • High quality150pt disagreementUpdated 33 minutes ago
POLYMARKETSpain vs. Belgium - Player Props
Winning Outcome
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$1.6M
28 • Low qualityUpdated 12 minutes ago
POLYMARKETMilwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - First 5 Innings Winner
Winning Outcome
Pittsburgh Pirates (100%)
Resolved
—
Total Vol
$140.6
49 • Low qualityUpdated 32 minutes ago
POLYMARKETWimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
24h Volume
$12.6M
Total Vol
$12.7M
Zverev Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
100 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
POLYMARKETWorld Cup Winner
24h Volume
$34.9M
Total Vol
$4.2B
France39%
77 • High quality11pt disagreementUpdated 1 minute ago
KALSHIFrance vs Spain
24h Volume
$5.5M
Total Vol
$6.5M
France advances59%
100 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
POLYMARKETFrance vs. Spain - More Markets
24h Volume
$4.8M
Total Vol
$4.9M
O/U 0.594%
100 • High qualityUpdated 13 minutes ago
KALSHIWorld Cup Final Matchup
24h Volume
$1.8M
Total Vol
$12.1M
France vs Argentina28%
100 • High qualityUpdated 8 minutes ago
Largest trades today
Where sources disagree
Source probabilities differ across markets. Check the source pages before trading.
Labels reflect the resolution data we've verified for each source — not the market's reliability.
Surrey vs Essex82 pp gap
Essex:Kalshi94%vsPolymarket12%View comparison
Kalshi94%Polymarket12%Somerset vs Worcestershire58 pp gap
Worcestershire:Kalshi21%vsPolymarket79%View comparison
Kalshi21%Polymarket79%Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?44 pp gap
Naftali Bennett:
PredictIt55%vsKalshi11%View comparison
PredictIt55%Kalshi11%Which bills will become law in 2026?34 pp gap
Data center utility cost protection:Polymarket48%vsKalshi14%View comparison
Polymarket48%Kalshi14%MLB: RBIs Leader34 pp gap
Pete Alonso:Kalshi2%vsPolymarket36%View comparison
Kalshi2%Polymarket36%Probabilities can be stale or settle differently across sources.
Forecast accuracy
How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
Manifold MarketsWell calibrated1.9%364 markets
PolymarketFairly calibrated4.2%285 markets
KalshiRoughly calibrated7.8%897 markets