Prediction Markets Today
A daily briefing on what moved, what opened, what is expiring, and what just resolved across prediction markets.
Last updated: Oct 21, 9:01 PM UTC
Biggest Moves Today
10
Newly Opened
10
Expiring Soon
10
Just Resolved
10
KALSHITasmania vs Victoria
KALSHITasmania vs Victoria
Moved Outcome
Victoria
Probability Shift
78% → 20%
24h Volume
$29.9K
75 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETUS imports Russian diesel by which date?
POLYMARKETUS imports Russian diesel by which date?
Moved Outcome
November 30
Probability Shift
24.5% → 71%
24h Volume
$85.1K
75 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIWhen will Russian diesel be imported into the U.S.?
KALSHIWhen will Russian diesel be imported into the U.S.?
Moved Outcome
Before Dec 1, 2026
Probability Shift
23% → 68%
24h Volume
$10.8K
64 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETOpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?
POLYMARKETOpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?
Moved Outcome
675-725T
Probability Shift
48% → 92%
24h Volume
$5.1K
71 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIDellavedova vs Jones
KALSHIDellavedova vs Jones
Moved Outcome
Hayden Jones
Probability Shift
23% → 57%
24h Volume
$822.8K
91 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?
Moved Outcome
Made in America / American Made
Probability Shift
78% → 45%
24h Volume
$8.7K
71 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
POLYMARKETReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
Moved Outcome
25 bps increase
Probability Shift
24.2% → 55%
24h Volume
$28.9K
79 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIOpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
KALSHIOpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
Moved Outcome
Above 172T tokens
Probability Shift
59% → 88%
24h Volume
$6.7K
54 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?
Moved Outcome
Drill Baby Drill
Probability Shift
36% → 65%
24h Volume
$5.5K
55 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIGoogle market share this week
KALSHIGoogle market share this week
Moved Outcome
Above 16.6%
Probability Shift
72% → 44%
24h Volume
$72.4K
69 • Medium qualityData as of
KALSHIHeroic vs. FaZe
Opened
Oct 21, 8:25 PM
24h Volume
$25.9K
FaZe71%
75 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETM25 Santa Margherita di Pula: Matteo Gribaldo vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Opened
Oct 21, 7:59 PM
24h Volume
$166.3
Set Handicap: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (-1.5) vs Matteo Gribaldo (+1.5) — Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini50%
49 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIMiami vs New York J: Receiving Yards
Opened
Oct 21, 8:15 PM
24h Volume
$477.6
Garrett Wilson: 25+85%
39 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETM15 Monastir: Rocco Piatti vs Simone Massellani
Opened
Oct 21, 7:59 PM
24h Volume
$131.9
Set Handicap: Rocco Piatti (-1.5) vs Simone Massellani (+1.5) — Rocco Piatti50%
45 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETM15 Monastir: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Fnu Nidunjianzan
Opened
Oct 21, 7:59 PM
24h Volume
$116.1
Set Handicap: Fnu Nidunjianzan (-1.5) vs Nicolas Tepmahc (+1.5) — Fnu Nidunjianzan51%
42 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIVicente Barcelos vs Porto: Spread
Opened
Oct 21, 8:06 PM
24h Volume
$378
Porto wins by more than 1.5 goals41%
29 • Low qualityData as of
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Michael Carrick be sacked by Manchester United before the end of the 2026-2027 season?
Opened
Oct 21, 8:32 PM
24h Volume
$113.4
Yes70%
Data as of
POLYMARKETM25 Sarreguemines: Kenny De Schepper vs Louis Wessels
Opened
Oct 21, 7:59 PM
24h Volume
$112.9
Set Handicap: Louis Wessels (-1.5) vs Kenny De Schepper (+1.5) — Louis Wessels50%
37 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHILeverkusen vs Nuremberg: Spread
Opened
Oct 21, 8:06 PM
24h Volume
$311.1
Nuremberg wins by more than 2.5 goals1%
30 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIDe Schepper vs Wessels
Opened
Oct 21, 8:13 PM
24h Volume
$112.9
Louis Wessels52%
44 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMontevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro - More Markets
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$16.2K
Montevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 — Over91%
74 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMontevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$6K
CA Mineiro41%
79 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIGeneric congressional ballot on Oct 21, 2026?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$126.2K
Above 8.2%99%
57 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMontevideo City Torque vs. CA Mineiro - Exact Score
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$2.1K
Torque 4 - 325%
72 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETLam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.9K
34%+100%
71 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMeta (META) Q3 average price per ad growth?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.3K
12% to 15%100%
70 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETBitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5PM ET
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.1K
Down53%
62 • Medium qualityData as of
BTC
POLYMARKETWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 21?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$29.3K
$9699%
40 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETWill Meta (META) Q3 capital expenditures be above __?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$1.4K
$30B100%
60 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 21?
Expires In
< 2h
24h Volume
$4.5K
Down83%
34 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMicron (MU) Up or Down on October 21?
Recorded final outcome
Up (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$9.2K
68 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETSogndal Fotball vs. Raufoss IL - More Markets
Recorded final outcome
Both Teams to Score (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$8.4K
52 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETSogndal Fotball vs. Raufoss IL - Exact Score
Recorded final outcome
2 - 1 (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$4.8K
56 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETMicrosoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 21?
Recorded final outcome
$510 (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$8.2K
42 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETSogndal Fotball vs. Raufoss IL
Recorded final outcome
Sogndal Fotball (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$2.2K
53 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 21?
Recorded final outcome
Up (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$654.2
63 • Medium qualityData as of
POLYMARKETGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 21?
Recorded final outcome
Down (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$1.2K
39 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETSogndal Fotball vs. Raufoss IL - Halftime Result
Recorded final outcome
Draw (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$58.9
39 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETSogndal Fotball vs. Raufoss IL - First Team to Score
Recorded final outcome
Sogndal Fotball (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$10
49 • Low qualityData as of
POLYMARKETLevante UD vs. Athletic Club - Player Props
Recorded final outcome
Alex Berenguer (100%)
Result not confirmed by the venue
Closed at
Oct 21, 9:01 PM
Total Vol
$264.6
22 • Low qualityData as of
KALSHIButterfield Bermuda Championship Winner
24h Volume
$3.7M
Total Vol
$6.1M
Benjamin James8%
89 • High qualityData as of
KALSHISporting CP vs LASK
24h Volume
$2.6M
Total Vol
$3.6M
LASK99%
89 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
24h Volume
$2.5M
Total Vol
$53.6M
No change87%
89 • High qualityData as of
KALSHIBonzi vs Paul
24h Volume
$2.4M
Total Vol
$2.9M
Tommy Paul67%
98 • High qualityData as of
POLYMARKETBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
24h Volume
$2.2M
Total Vol
$28.1M
Democrats Sweep66%
89 • High qualityData as of
Largest recent trades
Largest observed fills in the recent feed, limited to the last 24 hours. This is not a complete daily ranking.
Where sources disagree
Source probabilities differ across markets. Check the source pages before trading.
Labels reflect the resolution data we've verified for each source — not the market's reliability.
Largest current gaps
EPL Top 2 Finishers10 pp gap
Crystal Palace:Kalshi11%vsPolymarket1%View comparison
Kalshi11%Polymarket1%Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?6 pp gap
TSMC:Polymarket18%vsKalshi12%View comparison
Polymarket18%Kalshi12%NHL: 2027 Eastern Conference Champion5 pp gap
New York Islanders:Polymarket7%vsKalshi2%View comparison
Polymarket7%Kalshi2%How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?5 pp gap
48:Polymarket18%vsKalshi23%View comparison
Polymarket18%Kalshi23%Probabilities can be stale or settle differently across sources.
Forecast accuracy
How closely each venue's prices matched real outcomes.
KalshiWell calibrated1.4 pp1,974 markets
PolymarketWell calibrated2.4 pp1,331 markets
Manifold MarketsFairly calibrated4.0 pp207 markets
GeminiRoughly calibrated9.4 pp55 markets
LimitlessRoughly calibrated10.3 pp121 markets