PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jul 18, 2026, 5:08 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%+0.2pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$32.1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 44 days ago
StaleJul 12, 26, 8:50 PMJul 19, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 19, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans.
- An extension covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify.
- The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowance can be spent on Fable without drawing from a usage-credit balance.
