Current implied probability
SpaceXAI 35.9%+11.4ptLeader of 16 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$233.6
Liquidity
$8.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 11:50 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab's model will be first to solve a Millennium Problem besides Navier–Stokes?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
