PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$47.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.1% / 1.3%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 7:58 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
PolymarketT-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
PolymarketTrump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?
PolymarketWill Virginia regulators approve the Dominion-NextEra merger?
KalshiWill the U.S. actually pay Greenlanders to support the acquisition?
Manifold MarketsWill Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros be concluded in 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
- An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? resolve?
- Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.