PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 54%+5.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$491.5
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 10, 26, 10:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4.
- Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
- Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+32.0pt94%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.2K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-6.0pt14%
- Z.ai+2.3pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.0pt85.4%
- Moonshot-1.9pt9.7%
- Z.ai1.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+8.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Grok 5 released by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 54% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Grok 5 released by which date? resolve?
- Grok 5 released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Grok 5 released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).