This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
40%+ 100%+32.7ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$790.5
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+31.7 pts
Market data
Updated 79 days ago
StaleFeb 6, 26, 11:18 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
60%+88%
45%+51%
50%+100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3.
- Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
- The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
