PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
0.2% 67.3%+2.5ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$440.2
Liquidity
$8.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 11:44 PMAug 26, 26, 1:30 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Core PCE MoM - July 2026?
- Polymarket prices 0.2% at 67% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Core PCE MoM - July 2026 resolve?
- Core PCE MoM - July 2026 is scheduled to resolve on August 26, 2026.
- How is Core PCE MoM - July 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
