Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 23, 8:39 AM UTCJan 1, 85, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a space elevator by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
- A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
- Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
- One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
- There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic.
- Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.
