Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release?
InflationOne-OffCommoditiesManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (17%)
Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, 12:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Current community forecastYes 83%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 10:54 PMAug 12, 26, 12:25 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes83%
No17%
83%
17%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 shows that the seasonally adjusted gasoline (all types) index fell by 3.0% or more month-over-month from June 2026. **Series:** CUSR0000SETB01 ("Gasoline (all types) in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted"), available free at https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CUSR0000SETB01 **Resolution:** Compute (July 2026 index / June 2026 index - 1) x 100 from the FIRST BLS July 2026 CPI release.
- Resolves YES if that value is -3.0% or lower (i.e. a decline of 3.0% or more).
- Resolves NO if it is higher than -3.0% (including any increase).
- The June 2026 value at market creation is 341.980; the May 2026 value is 378.660.
- Use only the seasonally adjusted series named above.
- Do NOT use the not-seasonally-adjusted gasoline index, the broader energy index (CUSR0000SA0E), headline or core CPI, retail price surveys (AAA, GasBuddy, EIA weekly), crude oil prices, or later annual revisions — unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution.
