What are the current odds for Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 90.2% as of October 30, 2026.

Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 90.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 30 minutes ago

Jan 21, 24, 3:25 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Using data from here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA

The last time it was above 2 was before 2008 financial crisis.
Will we see it get back up above 2 by the end of the decade?
Will resolve YES if any year is recorded with a fertility rate greater than 2, even if it comes back down by 2030.
The last year in scope will be 2029, but resolution will have to wait for final stats to be reported for 2029.