Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?
RegulationOne-Off5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 62.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 6, 26, 10:13 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-31, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) or Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) publishes data indicating that US datacenter electricity consumption in calendar year 2026 exceeded 6% of total US electricity consumption.
- Source of truth (must be one of):
- EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2027 or EIA Monthly Energy Review covering calendar-2026 datacenter electricity figures
- LBL US Data Center Energy Usage Report (next publication after the 2024 report)
- Equivalent EIA or LBL public dataset showing 2026 datacenter electricity / total US electricity ratio
- If neither EIA nor LBL has published 2026 data by 2027-03-31, market resolves based on the most recent EIA / LBL projection that explicitly projects calendar-2026, with consumption exceeding 6% of total = YES.
