Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 64%
Forecasters
97
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 23, 7:10 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another pandemic-related stay-at-home order in the US before EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketPandemic in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the WHO declares a pandemic not related to Covid-19 on or by December 31, 2030.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- If the WHO declares a pandemic due to some variant of Covid-19, this will not count.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-5.0pt11%
- December 31, 2026-4.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $22.6K
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.2pt97%
- Yes-0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.3M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400098%
- Above 6000+9.0pt69%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes+3.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $759.8K
- 24h Vol
- $932.6
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- New pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030? resolve?
- Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the WHO declares a pandemic not related to Covid-19 on or by December 31, 2030.