What are the current odds for Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024??

Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of October 26, 2026.

Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 72%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Apr 21, 24, 4:53 PM UTCApr 21, 29, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

According to the statistics I could find, around 84% of people globally are religious on 21st April 2024.

This market resolves to “yes” if the mainstream statistics I can find suggest that more than 84% of people globally are religious on April 21st 2029.
“No” of fewer than 84% of people globally are religious on that date.
“N/a” if reliable statistics cannot be found or if they disagree with each other as to whether religiosity has increased or decreased.
I will not bet on this market to avoid motivated reasoning.