Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?
AIOne-OffRegulationTech2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Apr 28, 23, 1:56 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 that clarifies the liability of AI developers for concrete AI harms, particularly clear physical or financial harms, including those resulting from negligent security practices.
- The framework should specifically address the risks from frontier AI models carrying out actions, aiming to incentivize greater investment in safety and security by AI developers.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
