Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?
One-OffRegulation3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.1%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the US DOE "impracticable to trace" graphite waiver (FEOC exemption) is still in active effect on December 31, 2026, allowing Chinese-sourced graphite active anode material to qualify EVs for the IRA Section 30D $7,500 federal tax credit.
- Current status (April 2026): Exemption active; scheduled to expire January 1, 2027.
- This market resolves YES if DOE extends the waiver past January 1, 2027, or delays its expiry to after December 31, 2026.
- It resolves NO if the waiver expires as scheduled on January 1, 2027 (meaning on December 31, 2026, it is still active — so YES if the Jan 1, 2027 expiry is still the scheduled date but the waiver is "in force" on Dec 31).
- Clarification: The waiver is active through December 31, 2026 (expiring Jan 1, 2027).
- So the key question is whether DOE extends it or allows it to lapse on schedule.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the US DOE "impracticable to trace" graphite waiver (FEOC exemption) is still in active effect on December 31, 2026, allowing Chinese-sourced graphite active anode material to qualify EVs for the IRA Section 30D $7,500 federal tax credit.