Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 19, 26, 12:29 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, during 2029, the United Kingdom had significantly greater overall access to US frontier AI than France.
- “Access” includes the practical ability of individuals, companies, researchers, and government bodies to use, purchase, deploy, host, or build upon frontier AI models or systems developed by US-based companies.
- Relevant differences may arise from laws, export controls, licensing rules, commercial availability, government agreements, compute restrictions, security requirements, or other meaningful barriers.
- The comparison should consider the whole of 2029.
- A brief or trivial difference is insufficient.
- The market may resolve YES where the UK had materially greater access for one or more non-trivial periods, provided that the UK’s advantage was also significant overall when the full year is considered.
