Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54.8% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033? resolve?

Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.

How is Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 4x in ten years is a 14.9% annual growth rate.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T27.7%
• $1.5–$1.75T+3.0pt22.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T-3.4pt15.8%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol

$2.3M

24h Vol

$88.3K

POLYMARKET

Largest Company end of December 2026?

• NVIDIA-1.5pt59%
• Apple+3.0pt39%
• Alphabet-0.3pt1%

+5 more outcomes

KALSHI

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

• 33,000.01 or above9.5%
• 29,500 to 29,999.997.5%
• 30,500 to 30,999.99-3.0pt

KALSHI

S&P close price end of 2026?

• 7,800 to 7,999.9923.5%
• 8,000 to 8,199.99+1.0pt13.5%
• 7,600 to 7,799.99-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

• $ANT49.5%
• $ANTH+7.5pt30.7%
• $AAI+5.3pt7.9%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

• 1.5T+-1.9pt38.1%
• No IPO by December 31, 2027+7.0pt36.1%
• 1.25T–1.5T12.4%

+4 more outcomes

• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• STRC hits $100 by…
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
• Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?
• How high will the S&P get this year?
• OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?