Will "The Rise of Parasitic AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.9%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 11, 25, 2:52 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Rise of Parasitic AI is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "The Rise of Parasitic AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "The Rise of Parasitic AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "The Rise of Parasitic AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Will "The Rise of Parasitic AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.