Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 24, 11:30 AM UTCMar 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if the dancing plague returns before January 1st, 2031.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-0434665d77eb
- @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-8270051dd717
- @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 (this question)
- @/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.1pt97%
- Yes-0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.4M
- 24h Vol
- $71K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- UN / United Nations94%
- China / Chinese / Xi93%
- Iran (3+ times)87%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+3.0pt97%
- Above 6000-1.0pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by which date?
- June 30,-1.5pt87%
- March 31,47%
- Total Vol
- $50.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
POLYMARKETScrewworm National Emergency declared by which date?
- December 31-26.0pt20%
- October 31-31.5pt11%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
POLYMARKETHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- 35 to 49+1.0pt46%
- 50 or more-25.1pt25%
- 20 to 344%
+1 more outcomes
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- What will Hims say during their next earnings call?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030? resolve?
- Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2030.
- How is Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if the dancing plague returns before January 1st, 2031.