Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffAI1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.4%
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36
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 20, 22, 12:55 PM UTCOct 20, 26, 9:59 PM UTC
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The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.
- A hope is that by studying these natural abstractions and the cognitive algorithms that use them, we might produce improved interpretability tools.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Natural Abstractions and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? resolve?
- Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 20, 2026.
- How is Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.