Current community forecast
No 70.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 26, 9:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Substack implements a platform-wide feature that automatically filters, downranks, or hides AI-generated content, or provides a global setting allowing users to automatically filter such content from their feeds (such as the Inbox, Home, or Discover feeds).
- To qualify as an "automatic filter," the system must apply feed-wide rather than requiring readers to manually initiate scans on individual posts.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
- The only available AI content tool remains the manual, post-by-post "Scan for AI text" tool introduced in July 2026.
- No platform-level automatic feed filter for AI-generated text is officially launched by the deadline.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026? resolve?
- Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria