Current community forecast
No 70.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 2, 26, 9:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Manifold MarketsWill a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, Substack implements a platform-wide feature that automatically filters, downranks, or hides AI-generated content, or provides a global setting allowing users to automatically filter such content from their feeds (such as the Inbox, Home, or Discover feeds).
- To qualify as an "automatic filter," the system must apply feed-wide rather than requiring readers to manually initiate scans on individual posts.
- The market will resolve to NO if:
- The only available AI content tool remains the manual, post-by-post "Scan for AI text" tool introduced in July 2026.
- No platform-level automatic feed filter for AI-generated text is officially launched by the deadline.
