This market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 11:47 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
YesWon
NoLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWhen will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship make daily intercontinental flights by 2050?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessRules
Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km) (if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)
- Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve.
- The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.
- Update 2026-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a flight plan includes a conditional or optional orbit attempt (such as one dependent on nominal conditions) and they decide not to proceed with the orbit, this will count as a failed attempt (resolving the market to No).
- Update 2026-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Starship establishes an orbit on a trajectory that would continue to make several orbits of Earth, but performs a de-orbit burn early before completing a full pass, this will resolve as YES.
- An elliptical orbit with a low point below 100 km from the surface does not count.
