When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
One-OffSpace3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2028-07-01 85.1%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
61
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 24, 8:03 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
In Artemis program SpaceX Starship is going to be used as Human Landing System (HLS), landing on the Moon with Artemis astronauts.
- When launched from land, Starship doesn't have enough propellant to get to Moon orbit, let alone Moon surface.
- To solve this problem, Starship will have to be refueled in orbit.
- On Starship 3rd flight SpaceX plans to demonstrate propellant transfer within one spacecraft.
- So far there have been no announcement of the first attempt of propellant transfer between two ships.
- For this market to resolve positively, the following should happen:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2028-07-01 at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? resolve?
- When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In Artemis program SpaceX Starship is going to be used as Human Landing System (HLS), landing on the Moon with Artemis astronauts.