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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?

When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?

One-OffSpace3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Q2 2024 or earlier
Q2 2024 or earlier 0%
Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters

60

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Feb 10, 24, 8:03 PMJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before 2026-07-011%

Rules

In Artemis program SpaceX Starship is going to be used as Human Landing System (HLS), landing on the Moon with Artemis astronauts.

Manifold Markets
  • When launched from land, Starship doesn't have enough propellant to get to Moon orbit, let alone Moon surface.
  • To solve this problem, Starship will have to be refueled in orbit.
  • On Starship 3rd flight SpaceX plans to demonstrate propellant transfer within one spacecraft.
  • So far there have been no announcement of the first attempt of propellant transfer between two ships.
  • For this market to resolve positively, the following should happen:

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Rules

In Artemis program SpaceX Starship is going to be used as Human Landing System (HLS), landing on the Moon with Artemis astronauts.

Manifold Markets
  • When launched from land, Starship doesn't have enough propellant to get to Moon orbit, let alone Moon surface.
  • To solve this problem, Starship will have to be refueled in orbit.
  • On Starship 3rd flight SpaceX plans to demonstrate propellant transfer within one spacecraft.
  • So far there have been no announcement of the first attempt of propellant transfer between two ships.
  • For this market to resolve positively, the following should happen: