Current community forecast
No 91.3%
No 91.3%Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 14, 26, 3:57 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if any organization successfully demonstrates a ship-to-ship transfer of cryogenic propellant in orbit before January 1, 2027 ("on orbit refueling").
- Only fuel transfer between two separate free-flying spacecraft qualifies as such, not internal tank-to-tank on a single vehicle.
- Candidates that would qualify:
- SpaceX's Starship "Chaser"/"Target" propellant transfer demo (NET Q4 2026 as of Sept 2026)
- NASA/Rocket Lab's Eta Space LOXSAT cryogenic fluid management mission, if it completes an inter-spacecraft transfer within the window
- Any other national space agency or company demonstration meeting the ship-to-ship criterion
