Current community forecast
Yes 90.5%
Forecasters
77
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 24, 24, 7:01 AM UTCJan 7, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsBefore which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
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KalshiSpaceX to spin off Starlink in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolves on whether the first Starship–Superheavy flight that is intended to be fully orbital will attempt to deliver one or more Starlink satellites to orbit.
- Success is not required, only that at the time the launch takes place, deploying a payload of one or more Starlinks to orbit is part of the flight plan.
- "Fully orbital" means that the vehicle at some point in the flight plan would be on a trajectory on which, without further engine burns, it would complete a full orbit around the Earth.
- The Starlink satellites(s) can be any model, as long as SpaceX calls them Starlink satellites.
- Launch counts as a vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust of its engines.
- This market resolves upon (and stays open until) launch of the first flight intended to be fully orbital.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight? resolve?
- Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2027.
- How is Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves on whether the first Starship–Superheavy flight that is intended to be fully orbital will attempt to deliver one or more Starlink satellites to orbit.