Current community forecast
By end of June 2027 95.4%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
59
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 11, 24, 8:10 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsStarlink active subscribers in Q3
KalshiSpaceX to spin off Starlink in 2026?
FutuurAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessRules
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise, answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Any type of Starlink satellite counts as long as Starlink is in the name (eg Starshield would not count despite being a close derivative)
- Additionally, the Starlink satellite must be technically capable of functioning (i.e. starlink mass simulators or dummy starlinks wouldn't count), though whether the satellite actually functions successfully or not once in orbit is irrelevant
- Related markets:
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices By end of June 2027 at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? resolve?
- When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit