Will South Korea start building a nuclear-powered submarine before 2030?
RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 25, 3:11 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if South Korea begins construction on a nuclear-powered submarine before January 1, 2030. "Construction" is defined as the commencement of physical building work (steel-cutting ceremony or equivalent) on the submarine hull.
- Whether the submarine is constructed in South Korea or not is not germane, as long as the submarine is intended for Korean service.
- Whether the submarine is a Korean design or not is not germane, as long as the submarine is intended for Korean service.
- If a submarine already under construction or already completed is diverted to South Korea, this will not resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if no such construction begins by the deadline.
