Current community forecast
No 74.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 23, 2:54 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Based on the resolution to this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/CamillePerrin/in-what-year-will-quantum-advantage?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu)Resolves YES if quantum advantage is demonstrated before 2030, according to the linked market (i.e., the linked market resolves to some number) and NO if it is not (i.e., the linked market resolves N/A).
- If the linked market resolves N/A due to some edge case, rather than a definite case of quantum advantage not being demonstrated before 2030, this market will resolve N/A as well.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? resolve?
- Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on the resolution to this market: