Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 23, 26, 8:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which dormant memes will make a comeback by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Roa Yuzuki make a comeback in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
KalshiWill the Roman Empire make a comeback until EOY 4000?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a year without polio before 2030?
KalshiHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if there are at least five confirmed cases of poliomyelitis (paralytic polio) in the United States during 2026.
- Cases must be confirmed by the CDC and reported through official surveillance channels.
- Paralytic polio is designated an immediately notifiable, urgent disease, which requires state and local health authorities to notify CDC within 24 hours of identification.
- Resolution will be determined by CDC case counts as reported on their official website or in CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports (MMWR)
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-3.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
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- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026? resolve?
- Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if there are at least five confirmed cases of poliomyelitis (paralytic polio) in the United States during 2026.