Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 26, 2:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?
Manifold MarketsWill the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CFTC regulate cryptocurrency spot markets by the end of 2026?
FutuurClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
See my tweet: https://x.com/realTomBayes/status/2023570876164120992
- Resolves when they are either accepted or rejected as an applicant.
- No time limit
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.3M
- 24h Vol
- $157.6K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-7.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-29.0pt24%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $16.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.1%
+5 more outcomes
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC? resolve?
- Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will PMEX Markets be approved as a DCM by the CFTC? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See my tweet: https://x.com/realTomBayes/status/2023570876164120992