Current community forecast
No 66.7%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 19, 23, 9:03 AM UTCFeb 19, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Additional context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LhEesPFocr2uT9sPA/safety-timelines-how-long-will-it-take-to-solve-alignment
- "Paul Christiano: P(doom from narrow misalignment | no AI safety) = 10%, P( doom from narrow misalignment | 20,000 in AI safety) = 5%"
- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoZhXrhpQxpy9xw9y/where-i-agree-and-disagree-with-eliezer?commentId=EG2iJLKQkb2sTcs4o "I definitely agree that Eliezer's list of lethalities hits many rhetorical and pedagogical beats that other people are not hitting and I'm definitely not hitting.
- I also agree that it's worth having a sense of urgency given that there's a good chance of all of us dying (though quantitatively my risk of losing control of the universe though this channel is more like 20% than 99.99%, and I think extinction is a bit less less likely still)."
- Feb 19, 1:55pm: Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom from AGI) within the next 5 years? → Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
