Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (98.4%)
Resolved: Oct 7, 2026, 7:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 9:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes1.6%
No98.4%
Won
Lost
Rules
OpenAI shipped 'Spud' in late April 2026.
- Whether Spud was branded as GPT-5.5 or GPT-6 has been the subject of intense debate.
- This market asks specifically about a public release of a model carrying the GPT-6 name.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly releases ANY model officially named 'GPT-6' or 'gpt-6' (any suffix variant: turbo, mini, o, etc.) — meaning the model is available to at least one of: ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise subscribers, the Responses API, or Chat Completions API.
- RESOLVES NO if no model named GPT-6 is publicly released by the deadline.
- A model named 'GPT-5.5' or any other non-6 designation does NOT count, even if its capabilities equal GPT-6 expectations.
