Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffBusiness & Corporate3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.3%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 12:08 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following media outlets will close *or* undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if OpenAI experiences significant financial problems during 2026, defined as any of the following:
- The company goes bankrupt or faces imminent bankruptcy risk requiring emergency intervention
- Significant inability to meet contractual obligations to infrastructure partners
- Company admits significantly lower financial milestones moving forward
- Forced restructuring of major compute commitments or partnerships due to financial constraints
- Significant decrease in valuation or delay of planned IPO/exit due to financial turbulence
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if OpenAI experiences significant financial problems during 2026, defined as any of the following: